Editorial Standards

Primary sources first

Filings, government data, transcripts, budget documents, and published papers. Commentary about commentary is not research.

The two-source rule

Every load-bearing factual claim needs a primary source and an independent check.

The single-source screen

A striking, quotable number that appears in exactly one secondary source does not ship. This rule exists because it works: applied to eighteen drafts it caught four incorrect centrepiece figures that had each been repeated widely elsewhere.

Three formats

Reports cover markets, housing, AI, defense, healthcare and frontier technology.

The Mechanism takes a behaviour people moralise about and shows the mechanism underneath.

The Contrary Case builds the strongest evidence-based argument against a widely held belief — and is abandoned whenever the consensus survives the test. An abandoned thesis is a successful outcome, not a failed piece.

The three share one research standard, one sourcing standard and one verification process. They do not share a narrative structure.

Uncertainty

Stated in plain language. Where evidence conflicts, we say so and present both sides rather than the convenient one.

AI assistance

See Research Disclosures.